The great Iraqi crisis
Why there is no unanimous Sunni well to fight ISIL?
1- The Iraqi crisis:
The three parties and their priorities:
The straggle is not determined by ISIL alone, there are other conflicts far more important to all the conflict parties:
#TheKurds : The Kurds do not see ISIL as a direct threat to their canton. There are fundamental points of disagreement with the central government in Baghdad that shapes the conflict, and they are far more important to the Kurds than ISIL. Their lands are not under ISIL’s control and the existence of a strong military force that prevents ISIL advancement to Kurdistan makes them to look after what is more important for them, and that is their share of Iraq’s resources and to equally govern the country with Baghdad economically and geographically.
#TheShiit see fighting ISIL is a priority because it forms an existential threat to their existence and power in Iraq, for ISIL is not only an influential and military threat, but also as an ideological threat, the Sunni fundamentalism against Shiism. And because ISIL’s speech, in general, threatens the Shi’a, its conflict with the Shi’a is a conflict of dogma, values, culture and geography as well, which makes it a conflict that could go on for centuries and consumes every single detail in the history of both sects. Therefore, it is a must for the Shi’a to fight ISIL until they reach an ultimatum, either ISIL or the Shi’a. As ISIL was a response to a religious call “the caliphate”, so is the people’s mobilization units” was in response to the religious call of “Collective Jihad Duty”.
#TheSunnis : With their lack in political representation, weakness of administration, unable to set priorities, the Sunnis find in proofing their political and geographical existence is more important that just fighting ISIL and the annihilation of ISIL and termination of ISIL in the meantime is the major priority for them. Their conflict with the Kurds geographically makes them delaying their decision. The Sunni Shiit struggle gives them additional reason to delay their fight with ISIL for the meantime because of licking their future vision for what is after ISIL. The Sunnis watch very closely the PMUs and theirs actions within the Sunni territories,Tikrit, Ramadi and soon Mosul. The accumulation of all those reasons make them more distant from forming decisive decision in fighting ISIL and the more they felt it the more their loses will be. Another conflict the Sunni face with ISIL, an ideological conflict within the Sunni sect as ISIL carries a Sunni identity and was born from within the Sunnis, and that in its own a huge pressure on the Sunni Muslims, therefore, they must take an existential and decisive decision to fight ISIL. The Sunnis are thinking this decision alot, if they side with the Kurds in their fight with isil, that means they have to compromise swath of land they see as an Arab land, and if they side with the Shi’a in their fight with ISIL, they will compromise lands they see as Sunni lands. hence, they reach out to the Americans or Turkey where they can reach an agreement where they can negotiate the minimum amount of loses, a level they can agree upon.
2- What are the factors that will contribute to change those priorities?
#Iran : the Iranian influence in Iraq pushes all parties to amend those priorities, or to change them all together. The Shiit are always inclined to believe in Iran as a military power to protect them, where the Sunnis do not see that, and they see Iran’s influence in Iraq diminishes the Sunnis’ existence and influence, where the Kurds see Iran as a potential partner in this conflict.
#Turkey : opposite to the Shiit, the Sunnis find Turkey as an opportunity to bring back balance to Iraq. Undoubtedly, all parties in Iraq do not make a move without a greenlight from the outside regional powers, and both Iran and Turkey play an essential role in shaping up this conflict. Therefore, the Sunnis feel that Turkey’s influence is there to help balancing the Sunni-Shiit-Kurdish triangle.
#SaudiArabiaandArabs : what the vast majority have no clue about is that the GCC do not feel any necessity to interact with the Iraqi crisis or to reach a solution about it. Although the Arab sides are unable to reach to a solution among their countries, and they stop short when the matter is about Iraq. Even though the Internal Iraqi conflict has its ramifications on the regional Arab level, yet it is not seen as a threat to them, therefore the Arab actions and steps towards a resolution for the Iraqi crisis is very slow.
#InternationalCoalition : is the greatest chance for all parties to balance out their conflicts and priorities.
3- How is it possible to reshape the conflict with new features and less loses?
The international community is not yet convinced enough to resolve the Iraqi conflict on an international level, which delays its resolution. Most strategical studies show that the international community does not have a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict in Iraq, is Iraq affronting ISIL on an international scale, or just locally? The Iraqis failed to expose the nature of the conflict, and this failure, for sure, is one of the major factors that delays the elimination of ISIL. Once all parties come to agree that the main goal is to destroy ISIL (although it is not enough in its own), the coalition will decisively end the conflict. Yet, if all parties form a certain shape of Iraq after ISIL, that will help to eliminate all suspicions about the conflict. Therefore, the Iraqis ate urged to move forward with the establishment of the Sunni canton and gain them back for the benefit of Iraq.
When all parties come to agree upon a futuristic roadmap, then they will eliminate ISIL.
1- Grant all Iraqi minorities a clear geographical entity that guarantee them a stable and secured life.
2- Reach to an intangible oil policy among the three parties.
3- Reach an agreement upon a geographical map that will guarantee the least accepted loses for all three parties.
Every is losing in this war and only ISIL is winning it if the Iraqi continue to fall short, aggravated and incapable to reach an agreeable resolution roadmap
The coming economical crisis in Iraq will end every chance of resolution, and today’s solutions will not be effective in the near future.